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Apr 25, 2013
04/13
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krugman may have a nobel, but reinhardt and rogoff had a study. they had a number. they are the only economists who had numbers, the numbers on this question. and when you are the only economists who have run the numbers on any important policy question, you will probably get a lot more respect than you deserve because in order to really base policy numbers -- base policy on numbers, we need a lot of people to run a lot of numbers. no matter how many times academies try to tell politicians they shouldn't base policy action on any one study in any area of social sciences or natural sciences, politicians refuse to learn that lesson. republicans loved the 90% number because for once they had some science behind what they were saying. it wasn't hard science. it wasn't organic chemistry or biology. it was the soft science of economics. the dismal science. and last week, that science collapsed because someone else ran the numbers, a graduate student at umass, thomas herndon, who you just saw with stephen colbert, actually used the same numbers that reinhardt and rogoff us
krugman may have a nobel, but reinhardt and rogoff had a study. they had a number. they are the only economists who had numbers, the numbers on this question. and when you are the only economists who have run the numbers on any important policy question, you will probably get a lot more respect than you deserve because in order to really base policy numbers -- base policy on numbers, we need a lot of people to run a lot of numbers. no matter how many times academies try to tell politicians they...
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Apr 18, 2013
04/13
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so you take apart this study that carmen reinhardt and ken rogoff put together. first error you found was a doozy. it was mathematical. they made mistakes in their xcel spreadsheet. >> they did. i wasn't to say it wasn't just me. myself with my coauthors thomas herndon, who is a graduate student and my colleague, michael ash. that was the first problem. the problem was they simply calculated wrong off their spreadsheet scheidt. melissa: okay, so their response to that was, has been, we do, we do not believe that this regretable slip affects in any significant way the central message of the paper or in our subsequent work. what do you think about that? >> uh-huh. well, there were really three errors. that was one. three types of errors. the net effect of all three errors was to convey very different picture than the one that's in their paper. the picture in their paper is, that once an economy, the u.s. or any other economy has a public debt level in excess of 90% of gdp, you're facing an abyss. that the economic growth is going to go down very, very sharply. the
so you take apart this study that carmen reinhardt and ken rogoff put together. first error you found was a doozy. it was mathematical. they made mistakes in their xcel spreadsheet. >> they did. i wasn't to say it wasn't just me. myself with my coauthors thomas herndon, who is a graduate student and my colleague, michael ash. that was the first problem. the problem was they simply calculated wrong off their spreadsheet scheidt. melissa: okay, so their response to that was, has been, we...
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so the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral people into dubious conduct which was pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to you know leave a sponge. petion to make them have to stay for fourteen days it's not a it's not bad enough that bankers have an incentive to commit fraud they want to give doctors will scalpels an incentive to commit murder you know the pain by the head pain by the scalp pain by the bust of kidney so this is where the economy is going because there is no organic growth there are actual generic kind of organic growth of the economy from manufacturing from jobs or anything like that it's all about death destruction drug dealing like h.s.b.c. does or any of these other banks well of course it's a problem of how people how we as a condom use calculate g.d.p. this
so the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral people into dubious conduct which was pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to you know leave a sponge. petion to make them have to stay for...
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made a microsoft excel blunder in our debt study and it makes a notable difference so this is kyron reinhardt and ken rogoff and they wrote a book which is now basically the policy template before there was a cyprus template there was the reinhart and rogoff template the book is called this time is different and they said that any time sovereign debt gets up to ninety percent of g.d.p. it causes basically economic disaster do low growth rate well there's a there's a lot of different things you can say in response to this you know my primary response to this would be that you've got some academics guys who are not in the market who don't have real jobs who are poring over data who are looking at textbooks and come up with a theory that they have a predisposition toward proving and they're willing to overlook actual facts to get to the goal line of proving a theory that turns out that the facts cited were wrong the conclusions were wrong the title of the book is wrong and says this time it's different no it's exactly the same all over again a bunch of bureaucratic academic knuckleheads whether
made a microsoft excel blunder in our debt study and it makes a notable difference so this is kyron reinhardt and ken rogoff and they wrote a book which is now basically the policy template before there was a cyprus template there was the reinhart and rogoff template the book is called this time is different and they said that any time sovereign debt gets up to ninety percent of g.d.p. it causes basically economic disaster do low growth rate well there's a there's a lot of different things you...
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is going on because removing people the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral bull people into dubious conduct which was pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to you know leave a sponge and me. you have to stay for fourteen days it's not bad enough that bankers have an incentive to commit fraud they want to give doctors will scalpels an incentive to commit murder you know the pain by the head pain by the scalp pain by the bust of kidney so this is where the economy is going because there is no organic growth there are actual generic kind of organic growth of the economy for manufacturing from jobs or anything like that it's all about death destruction drug dealing like h.s.b.c. does or any of these other banks well of course it's a problem of how people how we as a condom use ca
is going on because removing people the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral bull people into dubious conduct which was pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to you know leave a sponge...
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made a microsoft excel blunder in our debt study and it makes a notable difference so this is kyra reinhardt and ken rogoff and they wrote a book which is now basically the policy template before there was a cyprus template there was the rinehart rodolph template the book is called this time is different and they said that any time sovereign debt gets up to ninety percent of g.d.p. it causes basically economic disaster do low growth rate well there's a there's a lot of different things you can say in response to this you know my primary response to this would be that you've got some academics guys who are not in the market who don't have real jobs who are pouring over data who are looking at textbooks and come up with a theory that they have a predisposition toward proving and they're willing to overlook actual facts to get to the goal line of proving a theory that turns out that the facts cited were wrong the conclusions were wrong the title of the book is wrong and says this time it's different no it's exactly the same all over again a bunch of bureaucratic academic not whether it's these
made a microsoft excel blunder in our debt study and it makes a notable difference so this is kyra reinhardt and ken rogoff and they wrote a book which is now basically the policy template before there was a cyprus template there was the rinehart rodolph template the book is called this time is different and they said that any time sovereign debt gets up to ninety percent of g.d.p. it causes basically economic disaster do low growth rate well there's a there's a lot of different things you can...
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so the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral pull people into dubious conduct well this is pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to. you know leave a sponge and make them have to stay for fourteen days it's not bad enough that bankers have an incentive to commit fraud they want to give doctors will scalpels an incentive to commit murder you know the pain by the head pain by the scalp pain by a bust of kidney so this is where the economy is going because there's no organic growth there are actual generic kind of organic growth of the economy from manufacturing from jobs or anything like that it's all about death destruction drug dealing like h.s.b.c. does or any of these other banks well of course it's a problem of how people how we as a condom use calculate g.d.p. this is a g.d.p.
so the article goes on to say in an editorial dr reinhardt an expert on medical economics from princeton university called the study's findings trouble some but not surprising he called the current payment system untoward adding that it can quote tempt all the wise admiral pull people into dubious conduct well this is pretty remarkable covering for a doctor from princeton who say suggesting that there is a huge financial incentive there to. you know leave a sponge and make them have to stay for...
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Apr 17, 2013
04/13
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CNBC
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>> do you know how many times rogoff and reinhardt have been quoted by everybody? >> you can have a depression if you continue this nonsense! it's nonsense! [ opening bell ringing ] >> he has the same level of unemployment that we had in 1934. >> yeah. >> it's crazy. >> greece even worse. there's the bell and looking at negative breadth. we're at the big board this morning. finra investor education foundation and the readiness program and over at the nasdaq, fairway, fooler in the greater new york city area celebrating its ipo. jim prices it at 13. >> people known to get married who meet in fairway aisles, you know that, right? >> they have, and people also beaten each other up in fairway aisles, as well. >> they get married in the tangerine aisle. >> and the narrow passageways they have on 74th street anyway. and the one on 125th street. >> people who don't live in new york, there's a certain cult. >> yes. it's more than a whole foods cult and certainly more than a safeway cult and black hawk is coming. >> fairway itself, family run and then they sell out 80% of p
>> do you know how many times rogoff and reinhardt have been quoted by everybody? >> you can have a depression if you continue this nonsense! it's nonsense! [ opening bell ringing ] >> he has the same level of unemployment that we had in 1934. >> yeah. >> it's crazy. >> greece even worse. there's the bell and looking at negative breadth. we're at the big board this morning. finra investor education foundation and the readiness program and over at the nasdaq,...
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Apr 10, 2013
04/13
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there is a study by economist es reinhardt and rogoff that said we would have a million more jobs if not for these numbers. this is the fourth year in a row, never in the history of our country, have we had debts and deficits of $1 trillion. and yet the president's budget, it appears, will not fundamentally change the course we're on. i think from what i've heard from the media reports, we'd add about $7 trillion to our debt over the next ten years. put you arputting our debt at al where it's the entire size of our economy, where we have unfortunately continued economic doldrums because we can't get out of this huge overhang of debts and deficits. it is time to make a change of it is a moment for truth. it is an opportunity to address the challenge. my fear is that the president's budget will not be adequate to meet the challenge. there are some things in the budget that will be positive. i understand that the president is likely to propose a more accurate level of inflation when we're talking about how to adjust for cost of lisping and the programs, including the vital but unsustain
there is a study by economist es reinhardt and rogoff that said we would have a million more jobs if not for these numbers. this is the fourth year in a row, never in the history of our country, have we had debts and deficits of $1 trillion. and yet the president's budget, it appears, will not fundamentally change the course we're on. i think from what i've heard from the media reports, we'd add about $7 trillion to our debt over the next ten years. put you arputting our debt at al where it's...
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Apr 29, 2013
04/13
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CNBC
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i think -- it seems to me ever since the reinhardt rogolf paper was dissed. there were obviously some issues there. i do think it's been a stellar drop from grace as to what debt may mean and notion of austerity being very much not very helpful. i will continue to say that i think that the generalized theme of that research paper is, is that whatever your growth rate is, specially when you look at it over a 5- 10-15-20-year horizon, you underperform whatever that benchmark is. pure and simple. we can talk about sampling countries that are tiny and errors that were made. but there's no doubt the more debt you have you're going to underperform. it's just a matter of how much. i called all my sources that i really like to handicap what their thoughts about thursday and ecb are. i find it interesting. from last wednesday of last wee today there have been some major changes. i see that many of my sources think there's a 7 to 8 out of 10 chance the ecb will lower rates. that is a much higher level than just about a week ago. and the rationale is, just like in our m
i think -- it seems to me ever since the reinhardt rogolf paper was dissed. there were obviously some issues there. i do think it's been a stellar drop from grace as to what debt may mean and notion of austerity being very much not very helpful. i will continue to say that i think that the generalized theme of that research paper is, is that whatever your growth rate is, specially when you look at it over a 5- 10-15-20-year horizon, you underperform whatever that benchmark is. pure and simple....